CIE53 | I06

Healthcare Operations, Digital Services and Quality

Wednesday, 21 October | 14:30-16:00 GST

Room 1 (provisional) | In person

Chair: Ravindra Goonetilleke

Conference schedule

Paper #112

Machine Learning Causal Forecasting for Hospital Pharmaceutical Demand: Evidence from Five French Hospitals

Denis Koala, Zakaria Yahouni, Gülgün Alpan and Djamal Si Mohand

Presenting author: Zakaria YAHOUNI

Abstract

Inaccurate pharmaceutical demand forecasting undermines hospital inventory management, causing drug shortages, overstocking, and avoidable logistics costs. Classical “World Healthcare Organization” methods, particularly the consumption method, rely solely on historical consumption data and cannot account for the operational context driving demand. This paper presents a machine learning-based causal forecasting framework applied to monthly medicine consumption data from five French hospitals. Using twelve operational features, including patient volumes, bed capacity, and staff levels, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network models are trained and tested on ten medicines. Random Forest achieves a mean R² of 0.81 on the test set and substantially outperforms the WHO consumption method across all medicines. These results demonstrate the operational feasibility and accuracy gain of machine learning-based causal forecasting for hospital pharmaceutical supply chain management.

Paper #173

Event driven dynamic ambulance dispatch with transformer reinforcement learning and explainability

Yimo Yan, Bo Zou, Theja Tulabandhula and Yong-Hong Kuo

Presenting author: Yimo Yan

Abstract

Efficient ambulance dispatch is essential for timely emergency medical care under limited fleet capacity and uncertain patient demand. This paper presents an event driven semi Markov decision model in which dispatch decisions are triggered by patient call arrivals or newly idle ambulances. The model allows strategic ambulance withholding and ambulance redirection. To solve the problem, we develop a transformer reinforcement learning framework that learns contextual ambulance and patient location assignments through attention based communication. We further distill the learned policy into a surrogate decision tree to support explainable dispatch recommendations. Experiments on synthetic cases and Toronto paramedic data show that the proposed approach reduces patient waiting and improves ambulance operating efficiency.

Paper #181

Managing telemedicine disruptions in hybrid outpatient appointment systems

Aparna Venkataraman, Varun Ramamohan and Sisira Edirippulige

Presenting author: Aparna Venkataraman

Abstract

Hybrid outpatient clinics must expand access while maintaining reliable operational performance. This is difficult when telemedicine visits share clinical capacity with in-person care and are affected by infrastructure disruptions. Unlike service time variability, telemedicine disruptions can add consultation time or prevent visits from being completed. This paper studies how disruption conditions and appointment slot length affect such systems. An analytical model is developed to separate added workload from incomplete telemedicine visits and to derive a reference slot length for a given disruption setting. The mechanism is tested using a discrete-event simulation of a hybrid outpatient clinic with scheduled patients, walk-ins, emergencies, no-shows, and carryovers. Results show that short disruptions increase overtime and utilization, while longer disruptions reduce congestion because some telemedicine visits are not completed. Longer slots reduce waiting, but increase carryover by reducing daily appointment capacity. Resilient hybrid outpatient scheduling, therefore, requires balancing congestion, capacity, and telemedicine appointment completion.

Paper #172

A Decision Support Tool for Improving Healthcare Service Quality in Technology-Enabled Healthcare Settings

Karam Al-Assaf, Zied Bahroun and Vian Ahmed

Presenting author: Karam Alassaf

Abstract

Healthcare systems face persistent challenges in delivering consistent service quality despite rapid technological transformation. Traditional Healthcare Service Quality (HCSQ) models treat quality dimensions descriptively and assume equal importance, limiting structured prioritization in technology-enabled settings. This study proposes a Relational Framework for HCSQ (RF-HCSQ) and Decision Support Tool (DST) integrating validated quality domains and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) with hybrid multi-criteria weighting. A mixed-method approach combined expert interviews, a three-round Delphi validation, a practitioner survey (N=127), and a patient survey (N=206). Ten domains and 47 KPIs were validated and weighted via hybrid techniques integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Arithmetic Mean aggregation, and Shannon entropy, while patient priorities were modeled using the Plackett-Luce method. Bootstrap resampling confirmed robustness. Findings identify Patient Safety as the most influential domain and Clinical Quality as the second, with Technology Impact functioning as an enabling rather than outcome-driving domain. A preliminary end-user evaluation (n=7) indicated that the DST supports structured prioritization and actionable performance review.

Paper #231

Clinical Pre-Consultation Chatbot for Telehealth Intake Conversations

Ayah Miqdady and Ibrahim Elfadel

Presenting author: Ayah Miqdady

Abstract

Collecting patient history before a medical consultation is repetitive, time-consuming, and leaves clinicians starting from scratch with every patient. This paper presents a clinical pre-consultation chatbot for telehealth platforms that automates the intake step using Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct, a 7.6-billion-parameter opensource language model fine-tuned on the MedDialog dataset with QLoRA. During a session the chatbot collects symptoms, duration, medications, allergies, and relevant history, then produces a structured clinician note. A FAISS-based retrieval layer grounds responses in curated clinical knowledge, and keyword-based safety guardrails block diagnosis requests and escalate emergencies. Evaluation on 36 held-out MedDialog dialogues yields ROUGE-1 = 0.1842 and BLEU = 0.0243; perplexity falls 92.5% from 44.81 to 3.37 after fine-tuning, confirming successful domain adaptation. The system is a functional prototype demonstrating that parameter-efficient fine-tuning on a single consumer GPU can produce a safe, deployable clinical intake assistant.