Paper #138

Strategies for mitigating large-scale global energy supply chain disruptions

Towfique Rahman, Md. Abdul Moktadir, Yong Wu and Yousaf Ayub

Presenting author: Towfique Rahman

Session: O11

Abstract

The contemporary global energy landscape has become increasingly vulnerable due to large-scale supply chain (SC) disruptions caused by geopolitical instabilities, cyberattacks, and the transition to renewable energy sources. This research applies a reliability-enhanced fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) approach to systematically analyze the interdependencies and dynamic evolution of the identified 15 key mitigation strategies for the global energy SC. By integrating structured expert elicitation with a reliability-optimized aggregation procedure, the study identifies both upstream strategic drivers and steady-state operational priorities necessary for building a resilient energy SC. Dynamic simulations reveal that while geopolitical intelligence and diplomatic cooperation hold high initial importance, they primarily serve to activate downstream measures such as public-private emergency coordination platforms which emerge as the highest operational priority. The findings provide a framework for prioritizing and integrating strategies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) enabled analytics and strategic diversification, to enhance energy SC resilience.